Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at New Taipei Regional
decks
14
(5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
99
59-34-6
overall winrate
62.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.4%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
56.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1340
· range 1185–1591
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 68.3% | +8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 57.9% | +3.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 27.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 10 | 8-1-1 | 85.0% | 75.0% | 61.5% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.6% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.8% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -2.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 34.6% | -8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -11.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Peer Beyond, Fairy Whispers, Aether's Embrace. Losers more often ran: Draught of Stamina, Concealed Marksman, Staggering Strike.
Peer Beyond
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fairy Whispers
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Aether's Embrace
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Dodge Roll
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Draught of Stamina
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Concealed Marksman
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reconnaissance Scout
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Coronation Ceremony
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draught of Stamina | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Aether's Embrace | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Squallsnare | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rotund Squirrel | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Aether Dilettante | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Invective Instruction | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiled Dash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |